Donald Rumsfeld was an American politician and businessman who served as Secretary of Defense in the Gerald Ford and George W. Bush administrations. Although not the originator of the concepts – known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns – he brought this to popular attention.

Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.

The ideas are based on the Johari window.  The Johari Window model is a simple and useful tool for illustrating and improving self-awareness, and mutual understanding between individuals within a group. The model is based on a 2 x 2 matrix that compares self and others versus known and unknown knowledge. Created by psychologists Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham in 1955. Luft and Ingham called their Johari Window model ‘Johari’ after combining their first names, Joe and Harry.

For us as project managers, known unknowns refers to risks that we can identify and need to track, and unknown unknowns are those risks which are unforeseeable and which have a habit of blind-siding even the most experienced of us.

Despite being the butt of much humour over the years, Rumsfeld named his autobiography Known and Unknown: A Memoir and in 2013 Errol Morris produced a biographical documentary about Rumsfeld entitled The Unknown Known.

Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke was a German Field Marshal, the chief of staff of the Prussian Army for thirty years. He was instrumental in developing a system for the Prussian military in the 1800s that could deal with the uncertainty of the battlefield and is regarded as the creator of a new, more modern method of directing armies in the field.

Moltke’s famous observation that ‘no plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength’ is more usually represented as,

“no plan survives contact with the enemy”

and is a reminder to every project manager that plans need to take note of changing circumstances.

Moltke’s view was that military strategy had to be understood as a system of options since it was only possible to plan the beginning of a military operation. The main task of a leader was to make extensive preparation of all the possible outcomes which led him to state that,

“Strategy is a system of expedients”

Prussian military strategy in the mid-19^th century was surprisingly modern in outlook. Stephen Bungay in his book, The Art of Action, describes it thus:

‘Mission command is built on three important principles that guide the way leaders direct their people.

• Do not command more than necessary or plan beyond foreseeable circumstances.
• Communicate to every unit as much of the higher intent as is necessary to achieve the purpose.
• Ensure that everyone retains freedom of decision within bounds.’

Modern project management encapsulates these principles in rolling wave planning, empowerment, product variation and project tolerances.

Moltke has another claim to fame having recorded some excerpts from Shakespeare and Goethe on two cylinders on Edison’s newly invented cylinder phonograph in 1889. These are the only known voice recordings from someone born as early as 1800.

To show how relevant Moltke’s famous quotation is in the modern world, we only need to turn to heavyweight boxer Mike Tyson’s streetwise observation,

“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth”

Publilius Syrus was a Syrian who was brought to Italy as a slave but by his wit and talent he won the favour of his master who freed and educated him. He became famous as a writer for his sententia which are brief moral sayings, proverbs and maxims.

His most popular is

A rolling stone gathers no moss

meaning that ‘people who are always moving, with no roots in one place or another, avoid responsibilities and cares’.

But his understanding of project management comes with this piece of wisdom,

It is a bad plan that admits of no modification

Large projects and particularly public sector projects have a life and a momentum of their own which can make stopping or radically altering them almost impossible. Recent examples are the rollout of Universal Credit in the UK (the DWP ‘does not have a realistic alternative but to continue’ despite being 6 years behind and having spent £1.9bn to date – Rolling Out Universal Credit, NAO 2018) and the various upgrades to the UK’s Nimrod maritime and patrol aircraft. The last upgrade (MRA4) was ultimately cancelled in 2010 at which point it was £789 million over-budget and over nine years late.

The pressure on project managers to report that ‘all is well’ or ‘a RAG status of green’ can make giving bad news one of the most difficult of a project manager’s duties. But an honest appraisal of a project’s status can be one of the most valuable services you as the project manager can provide to your sponsor however discomforting in the short term.

Two thousand years on and a few well-chosen words from the great man are as true today as they were then,

Never promise more than you can perform